MTT final table adjustments for BR?

[L3sty]

My question is fairly simple. If I make the final table of a MTT where each step up the ladder is over 3x my BR, should I try to fold my way up the ladder? I'm actually wondering this because my friend recently placed 7th in a 802 player 2.25 buy in MTT. He was down to his last 10 dollars in his BR (not great BR management he knows), and first place was just over 300 dollars. Do you think it is more important to go for 1st in this scenario?

[JSquared]

Folding does NOT increase your chances of moving up the ladder. Playing your normal +EV game will (which should be an aggressive based game etc etc)

Yes in the situation you are in, you can fold and increase the chance that someone else busts in the mean time, but if you are in thise situation again and again, then you are only costing yourself money.

That brings this down to BR. Your BR should never be a factor once you have gone deep in an MTT. If you had bought in properly to being with, the Final table shouldn't be money that is going to be something you are afraid to risk.

Take Annette_15 for example. Throughout her online career, she estimates that she never doubled her BR with a single MTT cash or win. I can't remember the quote but it is something along those lines.

[L3sty]

Great reply. This was a specific circumstance where it seemed like tightening up and letting the other players bust each other at least for a couple steps up in the ladder would have been a good choice. From what he told me about this final table, the players quickly busted each other after he lost with 88. I told him that maybe folding in that spot would have been better considering the raise in payout in relation to his BR. I don't think that there can possibly be a set guideline for this type of thing. And no this isn't one of those "My friend did this but really it was me" deals.

[JP]

If there are others that are more aggressive and shorter stacked then folding would be better. Knowing someone will get crushed before you and get paid for it heavy like that with zero risk is taking free money handed to them in that case.

He is not going to fold long or get much higher, but it's safe to say he can tighten and move up one maybe two levels that way. But he is not getting top 3 folding, that is almost certain as well. But tightening up against looser wider aggressive players is generally the right play to make anyway so you are in the top of their range when attacking or calling. But he has to understand, a lot of that at the final table is total bs in the wind players trying to steal to stay alive and move up. He should watch and in some cases defend his blind a little wider when he sees this occuring and take the opportunity to steal when he's on the button and the players on his left showed fold to protect signs too.

[Quimp]

But tightening up against looser wider aggressive players is generally the right play to make anyway so you are in the top of their range when attacking or calling

Yes, but that shouldn't have anything to do with his bankroll. If you tighten up because of loose opponents, it's good strategy. If you tighten up to climb the ladder, it's not.

If it was his first final table, you could make a deal to secure some money. That might not have been possible until 3 left though. But in all cases you should try to get all the chips, whatever strategy you employ.

Now if 1st place is around 300, second could be 180 and third 120. If your friends wants to keep playing the 2.25$ games, he would need at the very leasts 50 buy-ins (depending on whether he is willing to redeposit if he goes broke and his skills/abilities). 50*2.25 = 112.5$ so he would need at leasts a top 3 finish to keep playing the 2.25$ games. Otherwise it's back to 1$ tournaments or SNGs.

[JP]

This is true, however we must consider the situation. When building a br you play a certain way. One designed to assure more ITM with less risk taking. If he already HAS his br and is playing within it, then the only goal should be to win once at the final table. Sometimes, it is clear the situation at the table warrants folding almost everything for big step up when someone else is destined to go out soon. You wouldn't take a flip risking going out when someone esle is getting blinded out for example. That is insane when you have so much equity in the prize pool then.

In this case, he was destined to reload so it didn't really matter he was rolled for the game or not. As it worked out he went to final table and his decisions now SHOULD be what is best for his br. Since he made it here as a long shot and it is a rare occurence, he should be making the most of it to get the most money he can leave with now. If he can get 3 times his roll just by folding with no risk, then there is nothing wrong with that decision. This is an increase over his already locked in profit.

Of course playing this way is NOT optimal for winning and almost definitely can't take first or second playing this cautious. But it IS optimal play to gain the maximum cash in his br without risk. It's a trade off, give up big prize to assure himself of more cash than he has now.

Of course if there is no indication others at the table are likley to bust out soon, then avoiding confrontation is not necessarily going to get him any more money. It's situational and everything needs to be looked at to determine what is best for the situation at hand.

[L3sty]

This is true, however we must consider the situation. When building a br you play a certain way. One designed to assure more ITM with less risk taking. If he already HAS his br and is playing within it, then the only goal should be to win once at the final table. Sometimes, it is clear the situation at the table warrants folding almost everything for big step up when someone else is destined to go out soon. You wouldn't take a flip risking going out when someone esle is getting blinded out for example. That is insane when you have so much equity in the prize pool then.

In this case, he was destined to reload so it didn't really matter he was rolled for the game or not. As it worked out he went to final table and his decisions now SHOULD be what is best for his br. Since he made it here as a long shot and it is a rare occurence, he should be making the most of it to get the most money he can leave with now. If he can get 3 times his roll just by folding with no risk, then there is nothing wrong with that decision. This is an increase over his already locked in profit.

Of course playing this way is NOT optimal for winning and almost definitely can't take first or second playing this cautious. But it IS optimal play to gain the maximum cash in his br without risk. It's a trade off, give up big prize to assure himself of more cash than he has now.

Of course if there is no indication others at the table are likley to bust out soon, then avoiding confrontation is not necessarily going to get him any more money. It's situational and everything needs to be looked at to determine what is best for the situation at hand.

I think this pretty much sums up everything. In his spot I believe that it would have been best to fold his way up a couple of spots on the ladder. If anyone thinks this stupid no matter what the situation, please tell me.

[SacraficiaLamb]

Being the one that this happened to, in my spot I think I should have folded my way up a few more hands. The people I was playing with at the final table were almost all loose, and very aggressive, with orange M. As it turns out, about 3 more people got knocked out about 4 minutes after me, so waiting would have added about $70 more dollars to my bankroll. It was poor judgment to play it in the first place, and I'm now working on proper BR Management.

[JSquared]

All folding does is secure the fact that you won't place in the top 3. You have got this far, you have 8th place in the bag, you DON'T lose it if you bust out in 8th, you still win that place. You should assume that you own that place, and are now playing for the rest of the money in the prize pool.

Folding your way up the ladder only costs you money in the long run... if he was going to reload anyway, then we are assuming he is playing for the long run and long term profit.

It sounds like the hand was a super great spot for earning chips, to fold in that spot would be folding away $.

[JP]

The interest is this game right now this situation which is unique. Folding wins him more money than he would most likely have by taking risks by moving up due to others mistakes. So for this situation folding everything weak and marginal for him is optimal.

[Quimp]

If they were all loose and aggressive, then 88 performs super well against them. That's what JJ just said. I'll take a flip any day with 88 vs these micro stakes gamblers. I'll had that, from my point of view, if he was willing to redeposit then his bankroll was not 10$. It was 10$ plus the amount he was going to redeposit.

[JP]

If I can pickup a decent amount more for doing nothing but folding, I will fold and will not take any flip or 60/40 as far as that goes as it is not worth the risk to the prize equity share potential I can receive. But it has to be "decent" and to each person that is going to be unique as to what they feel is right for them.

Last time I made such a decision was over a year ago and folding assured me a few hundred more at the final table rather than take any risks. Another time the prize didn't matter it was all the same, Just folded and won. One other time was a gold ironman free roll. fold and moved up $75 where a win would only have gotten $75 for sure anyway but risked getting zero extra to play so was better to fold that one. I can't recall any other time I folded to move up. There are times based on stack sizes you should be folding race situations anyway.

"Willing" to reload isn't quite the same as "forced" to reload if you still want to play online. The reload part was only relevent in regards to br level play. If folding due to br then not playing game rolled for. This has no bearing in this particular situation because his br was effectively gone. That's like closing the corral after the horses already got out.

[Quimp]

Until SacraficiaLamb posted, we didn't know that the table was loose-aggressive. You can't know for certain that they will bust out in the next few hands, it could easily have played out differently. Without this info, folding to move up the ladder is a mistake in my opinion. Now we can philosophize that his biggest edge was patience: that's a fair point considering that, as you mentioned, we must adjust to our opponents. However, it this breaks the following concepts:

1. You must play poker with a certain disregard to money
2. If you are money-scared then you are playing above your BR (you are taking a risk you are not ready to manage)
3. The payout structure of MTTs is exponential to the top 3 positions, with a big gap for 1st.

Note that #2 may not even apply to SacraficiaLamb depending on his skills set and budget. There could be valid reasons to fold but it's a very rare occurrence.

[JP]

I agree completely Quimp. It should be extremely rare but that don't mean it's wrong to do it. For him it was probably the first and only time he did this because of his situation. I only know in my case that in I am guessing 200,000 hands or more, it only occured 3 times that I can think of in over a year span. So yeah, I say it is rare it should ever occur.

Disregard for money? Not sure how to take that one. But yeah, playing scared clears it up. It's defo not optimal to play scared or over BR.