How to earn $336K pa just from points earned

[sun137]

We all play poker to make profit, not just to play (or at least that is what we should be doing). The correct approach is to find the best mix of games to suit your talents and then establish the best level to play at to give you the optimum points/rakeback bonus without playing above your level and risking your Bankroll. The online market is becoming more competitve for the sites and they are all offering various incentives, from points to coins to rakeback, but the clever marketing hides one very important point - they are only offering a rebate (usually around 0.75BB/100 hands) of the rake they earn and you ALWAYS need to earn the rake for the site first before you can 'buy' the bonus - and earn the same rake for them all over again while you release it.

The standard rake is around 27% - 33%, so how do the sites that do NOT offer rake compare? The normal answer is 'not very well at the low levels of reward but very well at the higher levels of reward' - this means you need to be very active to earn enough points to get to the higher levels where the rewards are comparable to normal rakeback. Titan and Stars are 2 sites where this is the case. The low levels are the equivalent of about 10% rakeback (by levels I do not mean game levels but the reward levels - Bronze/Silver/Gold for example) but the higher levels are 33% +.

Do you need to play the higher buyin cash games to reach these levels of reward? Absolutely not. The sites 'cap' the points awarded per raked hand and there is a massive jump in buyin to reach the top reward level. I always suggest reading the points/reward sections very carefully before playing - you will be surprised at the low buyin levels needed to earn the points.

I will work through an example using the Stars points system (FTP uses similar figures and Titan has a similar approach). It is quite interesting to see how much can be earned very quickly with a simple approach.

The System

You earn VPPs for every raked hand and these are converted to FPPs on an increasing multiplier as you go up the reward levels. The MAXIMUM number of VPP you can earn in a raked hand is 3 - however this is only at buyin levels of FL 200/400+ and NL100/200+, so we can basically ignore this for our earning potential. We are looking at earning 1 or 2 VPP for a raked hand.

Stars split their games into buyins of 1/2 or lower and higher than 1/2 (for all games, FL/NL/PL). You may only earn (at most) 1 VPP per qualifying hand in a FL game with a buyin of 1/2 or lower and up to 2 VPP for a qualifying hand in a higher FL buyin game below FL200/400 - in NL it is $1 pot per $0.05 in rake for all levels and 1 VPP is 40 cents rake up to 1/2 and $1 rake for higher games. The 2nd VPP is earned when the pot reaches $40 (shorthanded) and $60 (NL Full Ring) or $70 (FL Full Ring). A summary of the rules for a qualifying hand are as follows:

Fixed Limit:

1 VPP = $8 pot in games of 0.5/1 or lower
1 VPP = $10 pot in games of 1/2

(no more than 1 VPP may be earned in FL games of 1/2 or below)

1 VPP = $20 pot in games of 2/4 or above
2 VPP = $40 pot in games of 2/4 or above (Shorthanded only)
2 VPP = $70 pot in games of 2/4 or above (Full Ring only)

(no more than 2 VPP may be earned in FL games of 2/4 up to 100/200)

3 VPP = $500 pot in games of 200/400 or above

No Limit:

1 VPP = $8 pot in games of 1/2 or lower
1 VPP = $20 pot in games of 1/2 or above
2 VPP = $40 pot in all Shorthanded tables
2 VPP = $60 pot in all Full Ring tables

(no more than 2 VPP may be earned in NL games below 100/200)

3 VPP = $500 pot in games of 100/200 or above

(You may pay a higher rake in bigger pots - $70 has a $3 rake in FL ($60 in NL) for example - but until the pot reaches $500 - in high level games - where the rake is $5, you will not earn the 3rd VPP).
(
The VPP points are used to reach different levels (Silver/Gold/Platinum/Supernova/Supernova Elite) where the multiplier effect for conversion to FPPs increases and this is important because the faster you earn FPP (not VPP) the more cash you can convert FPP to. The levels/rates are:

Bronze.....................automatic with a 1-1 conversion rate
Silver......................1200 VPP per month....................1.5 conversion rate to FPP
Gold.......................3000 VPP per month....................2.0 conversion rate to FPP
Platinum..................7500 VPP per month....................2.5 conversion rate to FPP
Supernova.............100000 VPP per annum....................3.5 conversion rate to FPP
Supernova Elite......1000000 VPP per annum...................5.0 conversion rate to FPP

The FPP value (in terms of conversion to cash) is 1 cent per point up to Platinum level, 1.5 cents at the Supernova level and 1.625 cents at the Supernova Elite level, with cash converted as follows:

5000 FPP = $50/25000 FPP = $285/50000 FPP = $650/100000 FPP = $1500/250000 FPP = $4000 (The last 2 are only available to Supernova players)

If you look at the above information, it is a simple process to find the FPP value in USD terms for 1 VPP earned at each level:

Bronze...................1 cent (1 x 1)
Silver....................1.5 cents (1.5 x 1)
Gold.....................2 cents (2 x 1)
Platinum................2.5 cents (2.5 x 1)
Supernova..............5.25 cents (3.5 x 1.5)
Supernova Elite........9.75 cents (5 x 1.625)

There are also special cash bonuses between Supernova and Supernova Elite worth 28K (2/3/4/5/6/7/8K at 200/300/400/500/600/700/800K VPP) and 100K between 1 Million and 3 Million VPP at the Elite level.

We must now consider the number of pots that will reach $8 for 1 VPP at the highest possible game in the lower levels, 1/2 (let us ignore the $20 for 1 VPP and $40 for 2 VPP at the higher levels above 1/2).

If it is a FL game, a preflop raise and the blinds = $3.50, so any call of the raise preflop makes the pot $5+ and it will take flop action to push the pot above $8.
If it is a NL game, a preflop raise of 3xBB and the blinds = $7, so any call will make the pot over $8.

The only time a pot will reach $40+ for 2 VPP is (usually) when 2 or more players go allin - so 2 VPP pots are rare until you get into the higher levels of 1/2 and above.

But let us be very conservative.

It is reasonable (IMHO) to assume we would reach the $8 target 50% of the time on a passive table and 75% of the time on an active table, so let's take the 50% level as a conservative estimate - on a NL1/2 table we will earn 40 VPP per hour on a FR table and 60 VPP per hour on a SH table (if we assume 80 hands per hour on a FR table and 120 hands per hour on a SH table).

There are 2 questions 2 be considered:

1. How does this compare to rakeback?
2. What BR do I need to get there?

Q1 - Rakeback comparison.

The best estimate for rakeback on any site is the SB figure for FL and the BB figure for NL (and add 50% for shorthanded play). If you play FL5/10 the rackback value is $5 per hour, or $7.5 per hour shorthanded - because Full Ring tables average about 80 hands per hour and shorthanded tables average 120, or 50% more. If you play NL1/2 the value is $2 per hour FR and $3 per hour SH.

If you look at the cash value of points for the various levels in the stars system (based on our 40VPP/60VPP per hour estimates in a 1/2 game):

Bronze..................$0.40/$0.60 per hour FR/SH..................similar to rakeback at FL0.5/1 or NL0.25/0.5
Silver...................$0.60/$0.90 per hour FR/SH..................similar to rakeback at FL0.5/1 or NL0.25/0.5
Gold....................$0.80/$1.20 per hour FR/SH..................similar to rakeback at FL0.5/1 or NL0.5/1
Platinum...............$1.00/1.50 per hour FR/SH....................similar to rakeback at FL1/2 or NL05/1
Supernova.............$2.10/3.20 per hour FR/SH....................similar to rakeback at FL2/4 or NL1/2
Supernova Elite.......$3.90/5.95 per hour FR/SH...................similar to rakeback at FL4/8 or NL2/4

The above figures ignore the additional cash bonuses at Supernova level and above which effectively DOUBLE the above figures at those levels to $5 per hour for Supernova and $10 per hour for Supernova Elite at the 1/2 level.

Therefore you earn less than normal rakeback at Bronze/Silver/Gold levels, a similar amount at Platinum and double/quadruple (and more) at the Supernova and Supernova Elite levels.

Q2 - What BR do I need?

The normal BR building requirements apply (see the BR guidelines) until you have achieved a solid roll/supernova level +.

It is more important to establish the right buyin and the number of tables to play for your initial needs and expand this as you gain experience. You do not need to be a millionaire to achieve it as the rewards are deliberately set for the lower levels. The key is to MULTITABLE.

Cash games are difficult to multi table if you play Fixed Limit, where constant action is needed if you are involved in a hand. A maximum of 4 tables in Fixed Limit is my own recommendation - anything above that and the game/bottom line profit suffers. However in NO LIMIT, if you decide in advance not to worry about player profiling, play a VERY tight premium card game, it is possible to play a very large number of tables (I was watching several people in the low levels playing 16 - 24 tables earlier today).

If you look at a 1 table scenario with 300BB or 15 buyins (FL1/2 = $600 and this is equal to NL0.20/0.40) you can see the BR guide has a 5:1 ratio for FL and NL buyins - do not ignore it. You will always earn VPP about 5 times faster for the same BR playing limit because you can play a higher buyin level. However you can always multitable more tables in NL than FL because of the constant action in the latter games. It is a balance, so decide your best approach and take it from there. You CANNOT earn more than 1 VPP without playing the 2/4+ levels where you need a much bigger BR, so accept 1 VPP per qualifying raked hand of $8+ is your target.

You want to get to Supernova - nothing else matters on Stars because it does not offer rakeback. If you can only earn (let's assume NL1/2 FR tables) 40 VPP per hour, then you will achieve the levels as follows:

Silver......................30 hours
Gold.......................75 hours
Platinum..................187 hours
Supernova................2500 hours
Supernova Elite..........25000 hours

If you 2 table the figures in hours are 15/37/93/1250/12500

If you 4 table the figures in hours are 8/19/47/625/6250

If you 10 table the figures in hours are 3/8/19/250/2500

If you 16 table** the figures in hours are 2/5/12/156/1560

If you 24 table** the figures in hours are 1/3/7/100/1000

**I was watching 3 guys playing 16, 16 and 24 tables today respectively at NL0.5/1 (a level lower than my analysis) so it is possible to multitable a large number of tables.

There are normally 2000 working hours in a year (50 weeks x 40), so it is possible to reach Supernova and Supernova Elite by multitabling NL at the low levels - but (as I mentioned above) start slow and expand your tables as your experience grows. You do not need to be playing in a hand to earn points, just sitting at the table (not sitting out) when the hand is dealt and receiving your cards. There is a huge amount of folding by guys who multitable NL at the low levels.

Is it worth it? What are the benefits?

I will provide an actual example - but first must point out we do not play poker just for the points, we play to make money by our skill at the game, but these figures CANNOT be ignored:

I watched the guys playing 24 tables at NL.5/1 earlier today, but let us assume it is at the 1/2 level. What could they earn?

24 tables at NL1/2 - with a mixture of FR and SH, so assume an average of 50 VPP per hour. We assume 40 hours per week and 50 weeks in a year, so 2000 hours per year. The hourly VPP = 1200 (24 x 50) so it will take just over 2 weeks for Supernova and 20 weeks for Supernova Elite. Therefore we can assume 50% of the year on a FPP conversion rate of 3.5-1 and 50% of the year on a FPP conversion rate of 5-1

The first 20 weeks (Supernova status, 3.5 FPP : 1 VPP and 5.25 cents per VPP, excluding special bonuses):

800 hours.................960K in VPP = 3.360 MILLION FPP

Special bonuses taken up to 900K in VPP................$28000 (at a cost of 300K in FPP, the $2/3/4/5/6/8K bonuses each 100K of VPP earned)
12 x 250K FPP bonues for $4K............................$48000 (at a cost of 3M in FPP)

60K in FPP left.

The second 30 weeks (Supernova Elite status, 5 FPP : 1 VPP and 9.75 cents per VPP, excluding special bonuses):

1200 hours...............1440K in VPP = 7.700 MILLION FPP

Special bonuses taken up to 2.4M in VPP................$70000 (at a cost of 300K in FPP, the $10/10/10/20/10/10K bonuses each 250K of VPP earned)
30 x 250K FPP bonuses for $4K..........................S120000 (at a cost of $7.5M in FPP)
Special 'Free' Cash Bonus for reaching Elite.............$10000
Free Entry into the WSOP.................................$10000

Overall total of cash bonuses taken....................$286000
Additional special bonuses not reached................$ 50000 ($30K in special bonuses for reaching 3 Mil VPP and extra 250K FPP bonuses to reach it)

Overall potential annual earnings......................$336000
Overall hands played.....................................4.8 Million (24 x 100 hands average per hour x 2000 hours)
Total 'hours' played on 24 tables.........................48000
Earning per hour per table from bonus ................ $7
Earnings in BB/100....................................... 7BB/100 hands
Earnings per hand played................................ 7 cents

Therefore earnings of $7 per hour PER TABLE on a normal $1 - $2 rakeback table will be achieved over a year - or $168 per hour on 24 tables.

This does not incude the additional FREE entry to the following MTT events:

52 x 30K GTD (every Saturday)
52 x 75K GTD (every Saturday)
12 x 100K GTD (every month)

(It would have been possible to swop the FPP for 3 x Porshe Cayman S cars instead of course...................)


SUMMARY

These are the potential annual earnings figures for a multitable player at the lower limits - $336K pa. I accept 24 tables is beyond the vast majority of us, but there are guys doing it now and the 2 guys I watched playing 16 tables will earn $225K in bonuses if they keep it up for the full year. It is important to remember this is for BREAKEVEN play at the tables and THAT is a heck of a good result playing so many tables. The players can afford to lose money at the tables and still come out ahead because of the huge bonuses available when Supernova and Supernova Elite status is reached. It is quite possible to be a winning player as well of course.....................

I am not suggesting we all jump in and try it, like all things it is a potential goal and it is something we should always be aware of before we start playing. There is no point jumping in and just playing - ALWAYS analyse the potential rewards first. It may change your initial decision on what to play.

I still do not regret switching to MTT this year to improve my game, but it took a lot of family discussion on the ski vacation at the end of last year (as i posted at the time) and now you can possibly see why.

It is not possible to achieve these BONUS results via MTT. It may be possible via multitabling SNG, but would require a much higher BR and skill level/experience.

End of post.........just a few thoughts guys............hope it helps. I am not saying Stars is the only one doing this, but explaining how ALL the sites who offer points work and what can be achieved using the Stars system as an example.

(I have edited the post following Matty's comments below where he correctly pointed out my analysis for the 1/2 level stated it was the .5/1 level. Apologies for any earlier confusion and ty Matty for highlighting the error so quickly).

[Marty Smith]

TYVM for this Sun. Amazing analysis.

[mattywein]

Sun

TY very much for doing this. Its extremely helpful. I was doing the same calculations and got to the stage where I'd thought that this would be a better money earner than my current job. I'd actually worked it out that I could earn about $110K per year. That was 12 tabling at .5/1 and base on my current profit/hour stats. There is just one thing that I think you may have miscalculated.

**24 tables at NL0.5/1 - with a mixture of FR and SH, so assume an average of 50 VPP per hour.

I think you may be overestimating the amount of Vpp's you are earning at this level. I earn between 250 and 300 vpps an hour 12 tabling .5/1NL. Its about 25vpps an hour per table. I'm at work at the moment, but when I get home I'll double check hours played on HM and do a proper calculation.This may me the rate you will pick up at 1/2NL, but I think its a bit high for .5/1. How did you get to this conclusion? Also I emailed PS support and they told me that you only earn vpp's if you are in the pot post flop.

[mattywein]

I am not saying Stars is the only one doing this, but explaining how ALL the sites who offer points work and what can be achieved using the Stars system as an example.

The major advantages to stars are as follows: Multi tabling is much easier, HM supports it and the traffic there is very high.

[sun137]

Matty, you are quite right - my calculations are based on the NL1/2 tables. I had worked out everything based on 1/2 through the post and then included the comment about watching the guys playing 16/16/24 tables at NL.5/1 to show it is possible to multi-table a large number at a time - but you should treat everything as a constant analysis in the post of the 1/2 level.

I will edit the post to make it clear (ty for pointing it out).

The comment from stars is interesting, suggesting you need to be in the hand POST FLOP to qualify for VPP. This is from their rules:

We do not charge rake if there isn't a flop ("no flop, no drop").

and.........

‘Number of players’ in the tables below refers to the players who were dealt into that particular hand, not the number seated at the table. (This refers to the rake calculation tables)

and......

Accumulating Frequent Player Points is as easy as playing poker. For each qualifying raked real money poker hand you play on PokerStars, you earn FPP credits.

and........

1. Earn FPP credits for cash game play

First Frequent Player Point (FPP) is awarded for playing a hand in which the rake reaches:

* $0.40 for fixed limit poker games with stakes $1/$2 and lower
* $0.40 for NL/PL poker games with blinds $1/$2 and lower
* $0.40 for ‘1-on-1’ poker games (this applies only to ‘1-on-1’ tables, not to regular tables which have only two players seated)
* $1.00 for all other games

Second FPP is awarded for playing a hand in which the rake reaches:

* $2.00 for all 6-max tables (this doesn't apply for games being played 6- handed at 10/9/8 player tables - just at 6-max tables)
* $3.00 for all other tables

Third FPP is awarded for playing a hand in which the rake reaches $5.00.

The NL rake is 0.05 for every $1 in the pot, therefore an $8 pot is the target for 1 VPP (= 1 FPP as stated above in the quotes).

My interpretation of their rules is that a flop must be dealt for rake to be charged, but you only need to be DEALT INTO the hand to qualify. If you fold preflop and the hand goes to the flop with other players, you STILL qualify for 1 VPP if the pot hits $8.

The email you received from Stars - does it say you need to be ACTIVE in the hand when it reaches the flop to qualify - because that is totally different and would be very unfair (IMHO). It would mean everyone would have to play to the flop to earn VPP and to be honest I wouldn't bother because that is not proper poker.

In reaching my estimate of 50% of hands played hitting the $8 target on a passive table (and this matches the rule of a flop being seen) I assume the following:

NL1/2........3x BB preflop raise and a call equals a minimum of $13 and a flop reached
NL.5/1.......3x BB preflop raise and a call equals a minimum of $7 and a flop reached

If noone raises and there is 1 limper, the flop is reached with a $5 pot in 1/2 and a $2.5 pot in .5/1

There is no guarantee of someone raising and being called every hand, some hands are totally folded and others folded to a raise and others have 1 or 2 limpers seeing a flop etc. There is more chance of an $8 pot in an active table than a passive one. When I looked at my own HM (and old PT) stats over the years, 50% and 75% for passive/active was about right at the 1/2 level and this is what the 40 VPP/60 VPP figures for FR/SH tables were based on when taking a conservative view.

I have looked at my old .5/1 NL stats and would agree with your figures - it works out at roughly 30% - 40% for passive/active tables, so 25 VPP as a conservative estimate for an hourly rate is fine.

It is important to remember only 1 VPP can be earned at these levels whatever the size of the pot above $8, so stars are not giving back any of the rake they collect from $40+ pots (where 2 VPP would be awarded at higher buyin levels. The golden rule remains - the benefits are less than normal rakeback until you reach the increased FPP multiplier effect at the Supernova levels. If you are just a casual cash player, play on a site with a rakeback deal, but if you are a volume cash player, stars is fine (and better at the highest levels).

If I analyse your 12 table .5/1 NL cash games Matty, using 300 VPP per hour over a year and 2000 hours (40 hours x 50 weeks), you will earn 600K VPP. This will keep you at the Supernova level for just over 10 months of the year (you reach Supernova after 333 hours or 2 months). We can use the Platinum 2.5 x multiplier for 2 months and the Supernova 3.5 x multiplier for 10 months to reach the total FPP figure:

100K x 2.5 = 250K FPP

500K x 3.5 = 1.75M FPP

Special bonuses....................20K (at a cost of 250K for 2/3/4/5/6K bonuses at 200/300/400/500/600K VPP)
7 x 4K cash bonuses...............28K (at a cost of 1.75M FPP)

Total bonuses......................48K
Total hands.........................2M (actually 1.92M but let's call it 2M)
Bonuses in BB/100................2.4BB/100 hands

If you are making about 3BB/100 this would increase earnings to your $112Kpa figure

If you increased to 20 tables, this would allow you to reach Supernova Elite by the end of the year and produce the following figures:

100K x 2.5 = 250K FPP

900K x 3.5 = 3.15M FPP

Special bonuses....................28K (at a cost of 300K for 2/3/4/5/6/8K bonuses up to 1M VPP)
11 x 4K cash bonuses.............44K (at a cost of 2.75M FPP)
Special 10K Elite award...........10K
1 WSOP entry......................10K

Total bonuses......................92K
Total hands.........................3.2M
Bonuses in BB/100.................3BB/100

Interesting numbers..............I would never recommend anyone to give up work as poker is a cruel game and we always need a back up, but there is certainly a goal to be aimed at with the potential bonuses available.

[JSquared]

Not to mention how hard it is to actually grind that many tables over a number of hours a day, Leatherass is a self proclaimed big session grinder, and even he said that going for supernova eilte almost sent him mental

[sun137]

I agree with you JJ, the mental effort can be soul destroying.

If you know the number of VPP you can earn per hour per table for a particular buyin, it is possible to plan ahead and budget the hours you wish to play each day to achieve your annual goals. I have designed a table which shows the potential annual earnings for a BREAKEVEN player on Stars playing various levels of 'Table Hours' per day and earning 50 VPP per table hour.

10 Table Hours could be 1 table x 10 hours or 2 tables x 5 hours, so you can work out your own combinations.

If you earn 25 VPP per hour per table, then double the hours you need to earn a particular level in the table - if you play 20 table hours per day and earn 25 VPP per hour per table, use the '10 table hours' line for your earnings potential. If you are not sure what row to use, work out your annual VPP earnings and use the corresponding row to find out your potential bonus earnings.

For example:

If I play 1 SH table of FL5/10, I earn 200 VPP per actual hour ($20 pot = 1 VPP, $40 pot = 2 VPP and 120 hands per hour) and this is equivalent to 4 'Table Hours' in the table below. If I play for 5 hours each day, this is '20 Table Hours' and I use this row to work out my expected annual bonus earnings - 250K in VPP and $10K in bonuses.

If I am not sure how to work out what row to use by this method, I just work out my annual VPP. This is 250000 (1000 per day x 250 days) and I use the row with this total in it - the '20 Table hours' row.

I would be able to reduce the destructive mental impact of large multitabling by playing at a higher level (obviously if BR allowed it).

The maximum recommended 4 tables of Fixed Limit at any one time would allow 800 VPP per hour or 6400 per day or 1.6M VPP per annum. The nearest row for comparison is the '130 Table Hours' row with an annual bonus of $136K for a B/E player, with an ACTUAL daily table figure of 20 hours because of the higher value of VPP earned. This is certainly an achievable target and a very useful goal to aim at. (30% Rakeback for FL5/10 = $7.5 per hour per table = $30 per hour = $240 per day = $60000 per annum)

One player on Stars who 6 tables FL3/6 for 8 hours per day, 5 days a week, earns 100 VPP per table, 4800 per day, 24000 VPP per week and 1.2M VPP per annum to provide him with annual bonuses in excess of 100K.

Anyway, I hope the tables below are helpful to anyone playing cash on Stars.





and a condensed Summary version (because it doesn't fit into the new forum layout with our names on the left)



One final note, just to compare Stars, Full Tilt and Titan, if I use the FL5/10 x 4 tables x 8 hours per day by 250 days rewards offered:

Stars..........................$136K (through cash bonuses and no rakeback facility)
Full Tilt.......................$60K (through 27% rakeback and a few $600 cash bonuses via the Iron Medal Facility. Full Tilt Points have no real cash benefit)
Titan..........................$134K (through cash conversion on points earned - 8 Million in total, based on 600 per hour per table and a 66% bonus)**

**Titan has the additional benefit of up to $100K pa if it keeps up the monthly points races in addition to normal points offered as the 100K in points per week would allow $2K - $3K on average per week to be earned.

SUMMARY

1st = Titan
2nd = Stars
3rd = Full Tilt

for any serious poker player who wishes to head to the higher levels of site bonuses. I do accept Stars has the best option for available tables to large multitable players and this is a major consideration for budget planning. Titan/Stars both have excellent software and support HM/TI.

[mattywein]

The comment from stars is interesting, suggesting you need to be in the hand POST FLOP to qualify for VPP. This is from their rules:

We do not charge rake if there isn't a flop ("no flop, no drop").

This is the question I asked support.

"Ok I've read the link one question if you are in the blinds and fold per
flop do you get an fpp if the rake reaches 40 cents"

This is the email I got back from stars

Thank you for your email.

I am writing to confirm that if you fold before you see the flop, then you
do not get any VPPs, if you fold after the flop, then you get all the VPPs
as per the pot.

If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us
again. Good luck!


Best Regards,

Now from what you've said here sun then the stars reply should have read.

I am writing to confirm that if you fold before you see the flop, then you
do not get any VPPs, but if a flop is played by other players then you get a VPP.

[sun137]

I agree, that is what they should have said (if the flop reached a pot of $8) - but site are notorious for only replying to the specific question, they do not expand on the answer.

I would suggest getting confirmation of the last paragraph from them for your own satisfaction.

This question should do it:

I have a query regarding VPP and Rake in cash games up to the 1/2 level.

I understand from your website the following applies:

1. No rake is taken unless a flop is played.

2. 1 VPP is awarded when the Rake reaches 0.40 cents.

3. The NL Rake is 0.05 for each $1 in the pot

4. The FL Rake is 0.05 for each $1 in the pot for 0.25/50, 0.50/1 and 1/2 buyin levels (it is similar in lower FL levels but the Rake is capped at $0.20 so VPP do not apply)

5. VPP rules only apply to players who were dealt into the hand

I have 2 questions:

1. 1 VPP will be awarded when a flop is played and the pot reaches $8 (this will mean a Rake of $0.40 in all NL games up to 1/2 and FL games from 0.25/0.50 up to 1/2) - is this correct?

2. I understand I will receive 1 VPP if the circumstances in Question 1 apply and I am dealt into the hand and am still active in the hand on the flop - but will I receive 1 VPP if I am dealt into the hand and fold before the flop but other players continue to the flop and the pot reaches $8?

Feel free to copy and paste this as an email question.

[sun137]

I just checked my VPP each time a pot hit $20 or $40 (on the higher levels) - it DOES award VPP even when I fold as long as others play on and a flop is reached.

[mattywein]

Thanks for checking Sun. I thought it must be the case due to the ammount of points I am getting.

A quick question. Do you think you would earn more points playing 6 tables of 1/2 or 12 tables of .5/1?

By the way are you playing poker full time?

[sun137]

No - I am fortunate to be able to work from home and my hours are flexible. I can play cash or an MTT while I work. I always recommend work as a failsafe, even for the volume of games I play (all my profits go to the kids anyway.......... ).

Ref the choice of game:

The target is $8 pots and you will (obviously) hit more $8 pots at the 1/2 level - probably at least double the number at the .5/1 level. The decision come down to Bankroll and strength of competition as this is a long term process over a year. If you have sufficient Bankroll - with a comfort level of 4 instead of the normal 3, then 1/2 is an option - it is reduced to a balance between fewer tables/less decisions/less mental strain v more tactically aware opponents at the 1/2 level.

If I have the BR I always play at the highest level - but that is just me, I have been doing this for a while - and 6 tables (IMHO) is an awful lot easier to manage than 12.

My advice to you would be to try 1 x 1/2 and 10 x .5/1, then 2 x 1/2 and 8 x .5/1 and so on as you get used to the higher level. It means you do not risk your BR at a higher level totally cold.

COMFORT LEVEL

^ = Squared

BR = Comfort Level x SD^ / Win Rate, so CL = BR x WR / SD^. A comfort level of 3 is normal, 4 is very safe and 2 is where you accept more risk.

The comfort levels you accept depend on your personal risk tolerance and ability/willingness to move down when you hit a bad streak. Most people are happy with a comfort level between 2 (aggressive) and 4 (conservative). You may need to set a much higher comfort level if you are planning to withdraw almost all of your winnings. Your risk of ruin if you stay in your current game without withdrawing or learning is about e^(-2*comfort) ~ 1/7^comfort.

When you are taking a shot at a level, you can use a much lower comfort level than normal because you should be planning to move down quickly if you hit a bad streak. Set a stop loss, and move down if you lose it. Usually you should avoid playing with a comfort level lower than half of your target comfort level.

Your win rate depends on you, and the levels at which you play. No one can tell you what your win rate is. It can take a lot of hands to get an accurate estimate of your win rate from your results alone. If you don't have a long track record, then you might view the calculation as conditional, not set in stone, and revisit it as your estimates of your win rate improve. Your win rate includes any bonuses or rakeback you get on a regular basis.

Your standard deviation should be measured over the same period and in the same units you used to express your win rate, whether that is big blinds/100 hands or $/hour. Standard deviation is calculated by both PokerTracker and Holdem Manager. If you play single table SNGs, it is about 1.7 buy-ins per tournament. For multitable tournaments, the standard deviation rises with the number of players, and with your win rate. A marginal winner playing 200 player tournaments may have a standard deviation of 5 buy-ins, while solid winner may have a standard deviation in the same tournaments of 6-7 buy-ins. If you play LHE, your standard deviation is about 15 BB/100 for full ring, and 17 BB/100 for 6-max. In NLHE, standard deviation is more sensitive to your playing style, particularly in shorthanded games, but typical values are 85 big blinds/100 for full ring and 95 big blinds/100 shorthanded.

Examples:(^ = squared)
Suppose you decide you want to use comfort level 3 as a starting point, and you believe your win rate is about 15 big blinds/100 and your standard deviation is 90 big blinds/100. Bankroll = 3 * 90^2/15 = 1620 big blinds, or about 16 full buy-ins.

If you want to use comfort=3, and your win rate is 2 BB/100 and your standard deviation is 16 BB/100, then your bankroll should be 3 * 16^2/2 = 384 big blinds. (Although many people repeat "300 big blinds" and many people repeat "20 buy-ins," the latter is typically much more conservative for online low stakes games.)

If you play SNGs, and want to use the same comfort=3, and have a ROI of 15%=0.15 buy-ins and a standard deviation of 1.7 buy-ins, then your bankroll should be 3 * 1.7^2 / 0.15 ~ 58 buy-ins.

If you play MTTs, and use comfort=3, with a ROI of 50% and a standard deviation of 6 buy-ins, then your bankroll should be 3 * 6^2 / 0.5 = 216 buy-ins.[/list]The bankroll you need for a particular level of safety is sensitive to your win rate, which typically drops as you play in tougher levels, and rises if you play in softer games. Do not assume that a fixed number of buy-ins or BB is appropriate at all levels. If you are playing for pennies, 10 buy-ins may be conservative, while an expert may need 50 or 100 buy-ins to be safe in high stakes games. That high stakes professionals talk about 40 buy-in drops does not mean you need anything close to be safe in soft microstakes games. That you haven't seen a 10 buy-in downswing in low stakes games doesn't mean you are safe with 20 buy-ins in mid stakes games.

These guidelines do not depend on the number of tables you play. Multitabling does not inherently increase your risk of ruin for a given bankroll level. If your win rate drops or your standard deviation changes or for psychological reasons you require a different comfort level, then you should factor those changes into the formula.

Your bankroll represents all of the money you can afford to lose playing poker. Particularly for low stakes players, your bankroll is often not your balance. If your calculations say you should have 400 BB, you don't need 400 BB on each site you might play, and it is ok if some of the money hasn't been deposited yet.

I hope this helps.

[mattywein]

Very much so, but how do you calculate standard deviation?

[sun137]

Standard Deviation = The square root of Variance

and

Variance = [(1/Number of Sessions) x Y] - [((WR/hour)^ / (Number of sessions)) x Session Hours]

and

Y = The sum of (Session 1 Profit/Loss ^ / Session Hours) + (Session 2 Profit/Loss ^ / Session Hours) + ........ (Session n Profit/Loss ^ / Session Hours)

For example, you play 10 Sessions:

Session 1. +$100 - 8 hrs
Session 2. -$300 - 8 hrs
Session 3. +$200 - 8 hrs
Session 4. +$200 - 12 hrs
Session 5. -$100 - 12 hrs
Session 6. +$250 - 10 hrs
Session 7. +$400 - 10 hrs
Session 8. +$ 50 - 10 hrs
Session 9. +$300 - 12 hrs
Session 10 +$100 - 10 hrs

Total Sessions = 10
Total Profit = $1200
Total Hours = 100
Win Rate = $12/hour

Y = (100^/8) + (-300^/8) + (200^/8) + (200^ /12) + (-100^ /12) + (250^ / 10) + (400^ / 10) + (50^ / 10) + (300^ / 12) + (100^ / 10)

= 10000/8 + 90000/8 + 40000/8 + 40000/12 + 10000/12 + 62500/10 + 160000/10 + 2500/10 + 90000/12 + 10000/10

= 1250 + 11250 + 5000 + 3333 + 833 + 6250 + 16000 + 250 + 7500 + 1000

= 52666

Variance = (1/10)(52666) - ((12^/10)(100))

= 5267 - (14.4 x 100)

= 5267 - 1440

= 3827

SD = Square Root of 3827 = 62 (it is 61.86 rounded up)

You can work out your expected Hourly Profit range to 3 levels of Confidence, 68%, 95% and 99.7%, using the following formula:

68% Confidence Level = 1 x Standard Deviation / Square Root of Hours played = 62 / 10 = 6.2

95% Confidence Level = 2 x Standard Deviation / Square Root of Hours played = 124 / 10 = 12.4

99.7% Confidence Level = 3 x Standard Deviation / Square Root of Hours played = 186 / 10 = 18.6

Therefore you can be (for example) 99.7% confident of the range of your hourly Win Rate being $12 + or - $18.6


THE RISK OF RUIN

This is also worth knowing.

The Risk of Ruin is the inverse of the chance of NOT going broke with a particular size of Bankroll due to short term variance - for example, if you want to ensure you do not go broke 99% of the time, the Risk of Ruin is 1% or 0.01.

You can also use and estimate of the SD.......equal to 10 x WR/hour.

We can look at the BR formula in a different way from the Comfort Level approach in my previous post (again ^ = squared)

Bankroll = -(SD^ / 2 x Hourly Win Rate) x the Inverse of the Risk of Ruin

Example:

Assume your profit is $20/hour or 1BB/hour. What should your BR be for 5%, 1% and 0.1% chance of going bust?

5% = -(200 ^ / 40) x Inverse of 0.05 = -40000/40 x Inverse of 0.05 = $2996

1% = -(200^ / 40) x Inverse of 0.01 = -40000/40 x Inverse of 0.01 = $4605

Therefore if you are a winning player with a SD of 10xWR you can expect to play for ever with 99% confidence at this level with a BR of $4605

0.01% = (200^ / 40) x Inverse of 0.001 = -40000/40 x Inverse of 0.001 = $6908 (or roughly 345 Big Bets)

Therefore you can be 99.9% confident of playing for ever with a BR of $6908 - and this is where the rough guide of 300BB for a BR comes from.

I know I have gone a bit further than your question, but I hope this is helpful. The Poker Profit Spreadsheet in the BR series works this out automatically for you.

[mattywein]

I have so much to learn. Its quite depressing really.